Category Archives: Uncategorized

Global Liquidity and better-than-anticipated January data (inflation, payroll, ISM surveys) have supported markets this year so far…Will higher global liquidity offset cyclical weakness via Central/Commercial Bank tightening? Global Liquidity/Monetary Policy: Central Bank balance sheets (reduced Quantitative Tightening pace since October/22 in the U.S.) appear to be expanding and used to maintain financial stability while slowlyContinue reading “Beware the ides of March”

Global Liquidity growth is almost back to positive in December,  but signs of economic deflation and weakening demand… Global Liquidity Growth in December (the latest available month) of (0.3%) was far below the trend growth of 7% but bottomed in November. The large increase month-over-month is related to the stimulus provided by China, which offsetsContinue reading “Trending in the Right Direction…”

This week we have reviewed cyclical and secular trends as it relates to growth and inflation and how these trends may impact asset markets. But first, an analogy to help us work through the current environment. For those of us that have driven in winter conditions and snowy roads (similar to the picture above), theContinue reading “Looking for Traction: Disinflationary trends are positive, but may indicate further weakness to come”

Happy New year to everyone! We wish you a happy and prosperous 2023. Review of 2022 and 2023 Outlook 1)In 2022, the Buy & Hold Balanced Benchmark of 60% US Equities and 40% US Bonds had the 6th worst year since 1871. Portfolio diversification was non-existent as Inflation uncertainty dominated growth uncertainty causing bonds andContinue reading “Staring into the Market Abyss In 2023…FY2022 Review and Model Portfolio Update”

In this post, we cover the recent data regarding the state of the global economy focusing on recent employment and inflation reports (lagging indicators) and trying to glean if we can see the light at the end of the tunnel of the rate hiking cycle/reduction of liquidity. We have noted in the past the importanceContinue reading “Light at the end of the tunnel?”

Global Liquidity Growth in October (the latest available month) of (6%) was far below the trend growth of 7% and may be close to bottoming in the next few months. Global Liquidity has been below trend since November 2021 and the trend-following portfolios have been allocated to the Safety portfolio since January 2022 generally asContinue reading “Model Portfolio Update – December 2022”

In this post, we cover the recent yield curve inversion of the 10-year less 3-mth spread and this has historically preceded a recession and has yet to give a false signal. We review the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (Boom/Bust cycle of monetary accelerations leading to Bust/monetary decelerations) and how tracking the True Money Supply mayContinue reading “Mapping out the Boom-Bust cycle and  Yield Curve Inversion…Did we miss a Market bottom in October 2022?”

This post tries to map out how liquidity is supplied into the real economy. When a commercial bank makes a loan, the borrowers’ bank accounts are credited by the amount of the loan credited (i.e. money is created). A lot of money was created in 2020/21 as a result of COVID-19 and has caused priceContinue reading “Follow the Money – Understanding Policy Lags…”