The window for a soft landing is closing…. Deep Dive into the US LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION,  and Bear Markets

At Beowulf’s Treasury we focus on Leading Indicators and market sentiment to help supplement our trend-following portfolio strategy, along with fundamental research. The Labour Market is strongest right before a recession (Unemployment rate tends to be lowest/Wage growth highest). The payroll report in early August surprised to the upside with 2x jobs added versus consensusContinue reading “The window for a soft landing is closing…. Deep Dive into the US LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION,  and Bear Markets”

Business Cycle Update: There are only CYCLES and Rate of Change, No Market Prophets

This week’s post discusses where we are at in the business cycle. Inflation expected to peak in H2/2022. As inflation is a lagging indicator, past price changes may be used to help forecast inflation (we have included our model in the attachment below). Changes in monetary policy has tended to take some time (between 12-24Continue reading “Business Cycle Update: There are only CYCLES and Rate of Change, No Market Prophets”

Financial Conditions Update

Financial conditions have tightened significantly resulting in higher costs (higher interest rates/credit spreads/stronger USD) which is meant to reduce aggregate demand and consumption to bring aggregate demand back in line with the aggregate supply of goods and services in the global economy. This process will reduce inflation back to Central Bank inflation targets. Changes inContinue reading “Financial Conditions Update”

Introducing BT Model Portfolio Tracking!

Over the past 5 months, we have been laying our views on the Economy and Financial Markets. In the process, we have been taking our readers on this journey as we have been building up our investment framework and related methodology. We plan to review and monitor the Trend Following strategies we have covered inContinue reading “Introducing BT Model Portfolio Tracking!”

Investing Lessons Learned over the past 60 years from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire Hathaway’s returns since 1965 have been phenomenal, beating the market handily and most of the other investment alternatives from an active management perspective (i.e. mutual funds and hedge funds).  Berkshire Hathaway is a multinational holding company and diversified conglomerate run by the investor, chairman, and CEO Warren Buffett (since 1965). Buffett is a famedContinue reading “Investing Lessons Learned over the past 60 years from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway”

Riding the Waves of Liquidity and Momentum – Introducing the BT Momentum and BT Wave Runner Portfolio Strategies

Our last post got us thinking about how difficult it must be for individual investors to stick to a portfolio strategy and drown out the noise given the recent news about inflation, interest rates, and Russia/Ukraine war and calls for a potential recession or even stagflation.  So we set out to create a systematic trendContinue reading “Riding the Waves of Liquidity and Momentum – Introducing the BT Momentum and BT Wave Runner Portfolio Strategies”

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