Model Portfolio Update – December 2022

Global Liquidity Growth in October (the latest available month) of (6%) was far below the trend growth of 7% and may be close to bottoming in the next few months. Global Liquidity has been below trend since November 2021 and the trend-following portfolios have been allocated to the Safety portfolio since January 2022 generally asContinue reading “Model Portfolio Update – December 2022”

Mapping out the Boom-Bust cycle and  Yield Curve Inversion…Did we miss a Market bottom in October 2022?

In this post, we cover the recent yield curve inversion of the 10-year less 3-mth spread and this has historically preceded a recession and has yet to give a false signal. We review the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (Boom/Bust cycle of monetary accelerations leading to Bust/monetary decelerations) and how tracking the True Money Supply mayContinue reading “Mapping out the Boom-Bust cycle and  Yield Curve Inversion…Did we miss a Market bottom in October 2022?”

Follow the Money – Understanding Policy Lags…

This post tries to map out how liquidity is supplied into the real economy. When a commercial bank makes a loan, the borrowers’ bank accounts are credited by the amount of the loan credited (i.e. money is created). A lot of money was created in 2020/21 as a result of COVID-19 and has caused priceContinue reading “Follow the Money – Understanding Policy Lags…”

September 2022: Comparing Mortgage Rates/Housing Prices In Canada across Time…..

The increased value of housing and stock prices on paper makes consumers feel more confident in the economy’s prospects. Feeling more confident, they spend more and become more willing to buy goods and services by taking out more credit increasing their risk appetite. We have covered these concepts in a previous post. Our financial systemContinue reading “September 2022: Comparing Mortgage Rates/Housing Prices In Canada across Time…..”

The window for a soft landing is closing…. Deep Dive into the US LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION,  and Bear Markets

At Beowulf’s Treasury we focus on Leading Indicators and market sentiment to help supplement our trend-following portfolio strategy, along with fundamental research. The Labour Market is strongest right before a recession (Unemployment rate tends to be lowest/Wage growth highest). The payroll report in early August surprised to the upside with 2x jobs added versus consensusContinue reading “The window for a soft landing is closing…. Deep Dive into the US LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION,  and Bear Markets”

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